Restaurant industry during recessionmsci world ticker

"From our restaurant-industry only perspective, when industry category comps decelerate simultaneously by -2% to -3% (like in the second half of 2000, first half of 2007 and now in the second quarter of 2016), then the lower 'new-normal' same-store-sales trend has lasted for at least two years -- typically the year-before and year-of a U.S. recession," he writes. Mabel says the next recession may help alleviate two of the most chronic challenges in the industry: ... “Sometimes restaurant operators wait until the recession happens, ... “The operators providing the best experience consistently will do best during a recession,” he says. Many people consider dining out to be an unnecessary expense, and creating a budget during economic struggles might mean cutting out late-night runs to local dives. And already some indicators seem to portend a potential cool-down.With a potential recession on the horizon, though, experts say operators shouldn’t let memories of the prolonged recession a decade ago shade today’s decision-making. Likewise, a recession could also help drive down skyrocketing real estate costs, particularly as the retail apocalypse continues to hollow out more big-box storefronts.“The strategic operator will take advantage of that for the long term,” he says. Westra doesn't stop there; he even goes as far to suggest that a restaurant recession could be a harbinger for a U.S. recession in 2017.

“It’s not just about ‘I’m going to a restaurant for a meal.’ It’s going to a restaurant with friends or going for a special Instagram opportunity.”He says the 2020 presidential election may hamper consumer confidence, yet many economists don’t expect a recession until 2021. But he warns that too much austerity can be counterproductive. There’s going to be a slowdown.”Aside from possibly helping with real estate and hourly labor, he thinks a recession may offer some opportunities at the top of the talent pool. It’s Darwinian.”Mabel says the next recession may help alleviate two of the most chronic challenges in the industry: rising rents and an ultra-tight labor pool. “And we’re in a really good economy right now. The last time the restaurant industry suffered declining sales in all four quarters of a year was 2009, right after the financial crisis and the start of the Great Recession. That will make consumers less optimistic and more careful with their spending.“I think that recession is not a near-term threat as of now, but that could change very quickly,” Fernandez says. The stability of the restaurant industry during a recession depends on the restaurant itself. But on a September earnings call, Darden CEO Gene Lee told investors that the company was seeing some softening even as U.S. wages and jobs experienced growth.“I personally believe that there’s some uncertainty entering into the consumer, and it’s impacting their confidence,” Lee told investors.That discordance is understandable. But savvy operators will grow more creative with their loyalty programs, social media, and delivery to hold onto customers.“This is a different generation than 10 years ago, and they’re going to respond to things a little differently,” Powell says. The weak may hurt or go away. The other note, from Andy Barish at Jefferies, struck a less alarmist tone. And to target millennials, she says brands should think about the experience as much as the food. Rather, many will save cash by trading down, whether it’s from casual dining to fast-casual restaurants, or from fast casual to quick-service brands.“People don’t stop eating three meals a day,” he says. That’s real money,’” he says. The foodservice industry quite often takes a hit during economic downturns. "His was the more extreme of the two bearish notes released Tuesday. "We believe the industry has at least 18 months of challenges ahead in terms of softer same store sales and higher labor costs because of capacity growth and labor tightness, a year after the stock peak in summer ’15," he writes, noting that this conclusion comes after an "extensive" study on restaurant supply and its impact on same store sales growth and labor.One of the biggest pieces of evidence Barish points to is a supply glut.

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